So may variables, so many unknowns. Among them population. There are population projections that show substantial declines in population beginning towards the end of this century. The trend in lower fertility seems real. Seems overall this would be helpful mitigating climate change. Less ag/land use needed. Higher standard of living but environmental impact offset by technology. Wondering about the probability/consequences of this aspect of the equation.
interesting hypothesis: development in the next period could skew higher to lower population and higher technology, or lower to higher population and lower technology, and either way likely to add 2-3C temperature with little impact.
possibly that makes sense. if technology and secondary wider/wiser diffusion of it result in mild rise of fertility in most countries and larger fall in fertility in Africa. it's also possible that technical understanding of climate sources and priority to adjust them improves, resulting in decreasing exacerbation of warming later in the period.
tangent: isnt the formula impact = tech X pop X wealth implausible on the face? wouldn't it be impact = pop X wealth / tech X intensity of wealth?
So may variables, so many unknowns. Among them population. There are population projections that show substantial declines in population beginning towards the end of this century. The trend in lower fertility seems real. Seems overall this would be helpful mitigating climate change. Less ag/land use needed. Higher standard of living but environmental impact offset by technology. Wondering about the probability/consequences of this aspect of the equation.
interesting hypothesis: development in the next period could skew higher to lower population and higher technology, or lower to higher population and lower technology, and either way likely to add 2-3C temperature with little impact.
possibly that makes sense. if technology and secondary wider/wiser diffusion of it result in mild rise of fertility in most countries and larger fall in fertility in Africa. it's also possible that technical understanding of climate sources and priority to adjust them improves, resulting in decreasing exacerbation of warming later in the period.
tangent: isnt the formula impact = tech X pop X wealth implausible on the face? wouldn't it be impact = pop X wealth / tech X intensity of wealth?
Yes, but that 3 or 4 C of warming from just moderate emission scenarios will stay above today's temperature for millennia. https://justdean.substack.com/p/climate-sensitivity-the-most-contestable